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Tijdschrift Tijdschrift voor Veiligheid x Jaar 2009 x
Artikel

Burgers over beveiligers

Een kwantitatief onderzoek naar percepties, verwachtingen en oordelen

Tijdschrift Tijdschrift voor Veiligheid, Aflevering 4 2009
Trefwoorden beveiligers, burgers, beveiliging
Auteurs Ronald van Steden, Maddy Roelofs en Mahesh Nalla
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    The employment of private security guards has increased in many European countries in recent decades and the Netherlands is no exception. However, despite large increases in the growth of the private security industry, little is known about how the public perceives agents of private policing and their role in crime prevention and enhancing the public’s sense of safety. In this paper we examine public perceptions of private security personnel. More specifically, we examine citizens’ perceptions and expectations toward the nature of security guards’ work and their relationships with public police, as well as citizens’ level of satisfaction with private security services. Findings suggest that overall Dutch citizens have mixed opinions of security guards. Nonetheless, contrary to what is often assumed about the public image of private security, findings also suggest that respondents are sometimes surprisingly positive in their reactions.


Ronald van Steden
Ronald van Steden is werkzaam bij de onderzoeksgroep Veiligheid en Burgerschap aan de Faculteit der Sociale Wetenschappen van de Vrije Universiteit in Amsterdam. Postadres: De Boelelaan 1081, 1081 HV Amsterdam. E-mail: r.van.steden@fsw.vu.nl.

Maddy Roelofs
Maddy Roelofs in onderzoeker bij de Dienst Onderzoek en Statistiek van de gemeente Amsterdam. Postadres: Postbus 658, 1000 AR Amsterdam. E-mail: m.roelofs@os.amsterdam.nl.

Mahesh Nalla
Mahesh Nalla is hoogleraar in Criminal Justice Studies aan Michigan State University, U.S.A. Postadres: School of Criminal Justice, 560 Baker Hall, East Lansing, MI 48824-1118. E-mail: nalla@msu.edu.
Artikel

Filteren op internet

De rol van de Nederlandse overheid in het blokkeren van kinderpornografische websites

Tijdschrift Tijdschrift voor Veiligheid, Aflevering 4 2009
Trefwoorden filteren, internet, kinderporno, politie
Auteurs Rutger Leukfeldt, Wouter Stol, Rik Kaspersen e.a.
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    The distribution of child pornography on the internet is observed as a major social problem. In the Netherlands a lively political-social discussion has emerged concerning the manner in which this can be prevented. The discussion moves between two polarities. On the one hand the dangers of internet censure are emphasised and on the other hand the need for a clamp down in which every measure seems to be justified. The present government wants to combat child pornography and by doing so answer the moral indignation of society. A means that the Dutch government, and on her behalf the police, uses, is blocking websites with child-pornographic content. The possibilities of the Dutch government to filter effectively, however, are restricted. The accuracy of existing filters is low and it is easy to get around filters. In addition, opportunities are restricted by constitutional rights. A filter that stops all websites with child pornography is bound to stop legal internet traffic too. That is at odds with the constitutional rights of freedom of expression and freedom of information gathering. The realisation of a filter that respects fundamental rights and still is able to block child pornography requires a lot of police manpower. This comes at the expense of the tracking down of criminals who produce and distribute child pornography. Furthermore, it is unknown whether the use of the child-pornography filter leads to the purposes for which they are deployed, such as hindering the sale of child pornography or reducing the abuse of children. The police, therefore, is assigned to a task that requires a considerable amount of time, but the benefits of which are unclear.


Rutger Leukfeldt
Rutger Leukfeldt is junior onderzoeker bij het lectoraat Cybersafety van de NHL Hogeschool. E-mail: e.r.leukfeldt@ecma.nhl.nl.

Wouter Stol
Wouter Stol is lector Cybersafety aan de NHL Hogeschool, bijzonder hoogleraar Politiestudies aan de Open Universiteit Nederland en onderzoeker aan de Politieacademie. E-mail: w.ph.stol@ecma.nhl.nl.

Rik Kaspersen
Rik Kaspersen is emeritus hoogleraar Informatica en Recht aan de Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. E-mail: hwkkas@xs4all.nl.

Joyce Kerstens
Joyce Kerstens is docent-onderzoeker bij het lectoraat Cybersafety van de NHL Hogeschool. E-mail: j.kerstens@ecma.nhl.nl.

Arno Lodder
Arno Lodder is universitair hoofddocent van de Afdeling Informatica en Recht, Vrije Universiteit in Amsterdam. E-mail: a.r.lodder@rechten.vu.nl.
Artikel

De aard en omvang van belaging in Nederland

Tijdschrift Tijdschrift voor Veiligheid, Aflevering 4 2009
Trefwoorden belaging, stalking
Auteurs Suzan van der Aa en Antony Pemberton
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    Over nine years after the enactment of the Dutch anti-stalking provision there are still no figures detailing the prevalence of stalking in the Netherlands. This article aims to estimate the prevalence and nature of this form of victimization within the Dutch population. In order to generate these findings the results of the national Police Monitor of 2001 were analysed. Of the 88,607 respondents 24 percent reported a lifetime rate of stalking victimization and for 1.2 to 3.1 percent of the respondents the harassment had begun in the 12 months previous to the study. With almost one in three women (28.6%) and almost one in five men (19.2%), women were significantly more likely to report having been stalked at some time during their lives. In line with previous research age was significantly related to life-time stalking with younger people having greater odds of reporting victimization. (Cor)relations were furthermore found between stalking and having a job, being originally of another than the Dutch nationality and education. But, apart from gender, the odds ratios for those socio-demographic variables were only very small. In most cases (65.6%) the stalker only used one method of harassment with unwanted telephone calls being the method that appeared most in isolation (65.7%). 59.1% of the victims indicated that they felt threatened because of the repetitive harassment. A remarkable finding was that in over 56 percent of the cases the identity of the stalker was unknown.


Suzan van der Aa
Suzan van der Aa is promovenda en onderzoeker bij het International Victimology Institute (INTERVICT) van de Universiteit van Tilburg. Postadres: Warandelaan 2, 5000 LE Tilburg. E-mail: s.vdraa@uvt.nl.

Antony Pemberton
Antony Pemberton is senior-onderzoeker en projectleider bij het International Victimology Institute (INTERVICT) van de Universiteit van Tilburg. E-mail: a.pemberton@uvt.nl.

Wieke Hooiveld
Wieke Hooiveld is als docent Criminologie verbonden aan de opleiding Integrale Veiligheidskunde van de academie Bestuur en Recht van Saxion Hogescholen te Enschede en Deventer. E-mail: w.g.hooiveld@saxion.nl.
Artikel

Criminogeniteit in Amsterdam

Een nieuw concept, een monitor en een index

Tijdschrift Tijdschrift voor Veiligheid, Aflevering 3 2009
Trefwoorden criminogeniteit, criminogeniteitsindex, criminogene factoren, risicofactoren
Auteurs Hans Boutellier, Ruben David Scholte en Merijn Heijnen
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    In criminology a lot of attention is paid to risk factors in the development of criminal behaviour. It is also not uncommon to speak of criminogenic factors. In the reported research project a monitor of relevant risk factors on an aggregated level (city, city councils and boroughs) was developed. In addition the data were combined into a so-called criminogenity index for the city of Amsterdam. The article discusses the development and results of the monitor and index. It elaborates on an article which was published earlier (TvV, 2007 (6) 2), but can be read as a stand alone article.


Hans Boutellier
Hans Boutellier is algemeen directeur van het Verwey-Jonker Instituut alsmede bijzonder hoogleraar van de onderzoeksgroep Veiligheid en Burgerschap bij de Faculteit Sociale Wetenschappen aan de VU te Amsterdam. E-mail: jcj.boutellier@fsw.vu.nl.

Ruben David Scholte
Ruben David Scholte is als onderzoeker verbonden aan de onderzoeksgroep Veiligheid en Burgerschap bij de Faculteit Sociale Wetenschappen aan de VU te Amsterdam. E-mail: r.d.scholte@minjus.nl

Merijn Heijnen
Merijn Heijnen werkt bij de Dienst Onderzoek en Statistiek van de gemeente Amsterdam.
Artikel

Additioneel seksueel gedrag van kinderpornodownloaders

Onderzoek naar additioneel seksueel gedrag met kinderen in een groep van 38 kinderpornodownloaders met behulp van gecombineerde zelfrapportage en polygrafie (Sexual History Disclosure Polygraph Examinations)

Tijdschrift Tijdschrift voor Veiligheid, Aflevering 3 2009
Trefwoorden cybercrime, polygrafie, zelfrapportage, kinderporno, risicoprofiel
Auteurs Jos Buschman en Don Krapohl
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    This article presents a study on Post-Conviction Polygraphy in the Netherlands. Importantly, it exclusively focuses on cybercrime offenders. The study was designed to systematically address the different child sexual behaviours exhibited by 38 subjects who were in treatment for possessing child abuse images. The results gave indications that post-conviction polygraphy can provide additional data to inform the development of theory in this area and contribute to the treatment, supervision and more effective containment of offending behaviour, and the reduction of future victimization.


Jos Buschman
Jos Buschman is senior diagnosticus aan de Dr. S. van Mesdagkliniek, Groningen. E-mail: j.buschman@fpcvanmesdag.nl.

Don Krapohl
Don Krapohl is president van de American Polygraph Association.
Artikel

Onbekend, maar wel bemind

Inbraakpreventief advies in België

Tijdschrift Tijdschrift voor Veiligheid, Aflevering 3 2009
Trefwoorden preventie, woninginbraak, slachtofferschap, sociale ongelijkheid
Auteurs Leen Symons, Johan Deklerck, Dave Gelders e.a.
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    Since the mid-90s, people can obtain ‘burglary prevention advice’ in Belgium, which means that a burglary prevention adviser will carry out a free assessment of the dwelling regarding the protection against a burglary and will recommend security measures as needed. In 2008, a large-scale survey by postal mail, commissioned and financed by the Belgian Ministry of Internal Affairs, was conducted to examine three main questions concerning burglary prevention advice in Belgium. Firstly, who receives a burglary prevention visit, or in other words what are the demographic characteristics of the citizens who obtain advice? Secondly, what is the extent to which these persons are satisfied with the visit and which elements, related to the advice, are associated with this (dis)satisfaction? Finally, do these citizens implement the proposed prevention measures and what is the role of the financial incentives (e.g. a tax deduction and an investment subsidy) concerning this implementation? Using a stratified random sample, 2,123 citizens were selected of whom ultimately 1,193 persons answered and returned the questionnaire. This paper presents the main findings of this study. We will also draw attention to the risk of an increased societal dualization and exclusion in the field of community safety when burglary prevention becomes predominantly the responsibility of the individual. The results of our survey for instance suggest that certain groups in society, namely the lower educated, tenants and apartment dwellers, are insufficiently sensitized to call upon these advisers. Furthermore, mainly the higher educated and those with higher incomes plan to make use of the possibility of tax deduction.


Leen Symons
Leen Symons werkt als praktijkassistent bij het Leuvens Instituut voor Criminologie (Katholieke Universiteit Leuven). E-mail: leen.symons@law.kuleuven.be.

Johan Deklerck
Johan Deklerck is als hoofddocent verbonden aan het Leuvens Instituut voor Criminologie (Katholieke Universiteit Leuven). E-mail: johan.deklerck@law.kuleuven.be.

Dave Gelders
Dave Gelders is als universitair docent verbonden aan de School voor Massacommunicatieresearch (Katholieke Universiteit Leuven). E-mail: dave.gelders@soc.kuleuven.be.

Dr. Stefaan Pleysier
Stefaan Pleysier is coördinator van het Expertisecentrum Maatschappelijke Veiligheid (KATHO-Ipsoc), en deeltijds verbonden aan het Leuvens Instituut voor Criminologie (Katholieke Universiteit Leuven).E-mail: stefaan.pleysier@katho.be.

Jan Terpstra
Jan Terpstra is als hoogleraar verbonden aan het Criminologisch Instituut van de Radboud Universiteit, Nijmegen. E-mail: j.terpstra@jur.ru.nl.
Artikel

Telefoontaps als netwerkdata?

Mogelijkheden en beperkingen om telefoontaps te gebruiken voor SNA van georganiseerde criminaliteit

Tijdschrift Tijdschrift voor Veiligheid, Aflevering 2 2009
Trefwoorden sociale netwerkanalyse, telefoontaps, georganiseerde criminaliteit
Auteurs Willem-Jan Verhoeven
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    The literature on using Social Network Analysis (SNA) in criminological research is expanding. The SNA perspective already changed the way we look at organized crime. More often organized crime is referred to as changeable social networks instead of hierarchical structured organizations like the Italian or American mafia. In this respect, SNA seems to lack behind in empirical research on organized crime. Mainly, this is due to the lack of suitable network data on organized crime. For obvious reasons, commonly used methods of gathering network data – such as questionnaires – are less suitable for research on organized crime. Suspects of organized crime have not much to gain from talking about their ‘comrades in crime’. Alternative data need to be explored. Wiretaps from criminal investigations are one such source. In this contribution the SNA perspective is used to present an overview of the possibilities and limitations of using wiretaps for SNA. It follows that wiretaps from criminal investigations should be regarded as ego-centered network data. Therefore, research questions and objective for both criminal investigations as well as scientific research should be directed to the personal networks of suspects instead of the network as a whole.


Willem-Jan Verhoeven
Willem-Jan Verhoeven is universitair docent Criminologie aan de Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam. Contactadres: Criminologie/OMV, Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam, Postbus 1738, 3000 DR Rotterdam. E-mail: verhoeven@frg.eur.nl.
Redactioneel

Toepassingen van sociale netwerkanalyse (SNA)

Tijdschrift Tijdschrift voor Veiligheid, Aflevering 2 2009
Trefwoorden sociale netwerkanalyse
Auteurs Dr. Renée C. van der Hulst en Leontien M. van der Knaap
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    In een redactioneel artikel geeft de redactie een toelichting op het tijdschriftnummer in kwestie.


Dr. Renée C. van der Hulst
Dr. Renée C. van der Hulst was tot voor kort als onderzoeker verbonden aan het Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek- en Documentatiecentrum (WODC) van het ministerie van Justitie. Zij is thans werkzaam voor Bureau Netwerkanalyse dat onderzoek-, advies- en onderwijswerkzaamheden verzorgt (onder andere op het gebied van sociale netwerkanalyse) binnen het domein van nationale veiligheid en criminaliteitsbestrijding. Contactadres: Bureau Netwerkanalyse, Postbus 938, 1200 AX Hilversum. E-mail: vanderhulst@online.nl.

Leontien M. van der Knaap
Leontien M. van der Knaap is universitair hoofddocent bij het International Victimology Institute Tilburg (INTERVICT) van de Universiteit van Tilburg. E-mail: l.m.vdrknaap@uvt.nl.
Artikel

Terroristische netwerken en intelligence: een sociale netwerkanalyse van de Hofstadgroep

Tijdschrift Tijdschrift voor Veiligheid, Aflevering 2 2009
Trefwoorden sociale netwerkanalyse, terrorisme, Hofstadgroep
Auteurs Dr. Renée C. van der Hulst
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    Radicalization and terrorism remain areas of special interest in terms of security policies. It’s common knowledge that most of the activities related to radicalization and terrorism heavily rely on the involvement of multiple actors. Therefore, an increased understanding of the underlying social structures is considered to offer important leads for the development of effective countermeasures (in particular when related to demographic, cultural, psychological and other social factors). Yet, the number of empirical network studies in this domain (at least those openly available) that incorporate arithmetic tools known as Social Network Analysis (SNA) remain extremely scarce. In this paper the author presents an exploratory Social Network Analysis of the Hofstad network based on publicly available data. Members of the Hofstad network, a radical Islamist network in the Netherlands, were active recruiters for the violent jihad, spreaded radical propaganda, some attended training camps in Pakistan, and the network was suspected of planning several terrorist attacks on strategic objects and prominent people in the Netherlands. One of the members, Mohammed B., was sentenced to life in prison for murdering the Dutch filmmaker Theo van Gogh in November 2004. Although the Hofstad network was considered by trial as a terrorist organization in the first instance in 2006, the judgment was reversed on appeal in 2008 when most members were acquitted. As is characteristic of home-grown networks, our analysis indicated that the Hofstad network (N=67) was relatively sparse and decentralized and evolved around a more cohesive core of key players (N=13). The key players were identified based on their central network position and a hierarchical clique analysis. Mohammed B., who had been considered a marginal player by the secret service, turns out to be the most central actor of the network. Although the analysis clearly suggests that quantifying network structures provides actionable intelligence, more research is needed to validate the results.


Dr. Renée C. van der Hulst
Dr. Renée C. van der Hulst was tot voor kort als onderzoeker verbonden aan het Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek- en Documentatiecentrum (WODC) van het ministerie van Justitie. Zij is thans werkzaam voor Bureau Netwerkanalyse dat onderzoek-, advies- en onderwijswerkzaamheden verzorgt (onder andere op het gebied van sociale netwerkanalyse) binnen het domein van nationale veiligheid en criminaliteitsbestrijding. Contactadres: Bureau Netwerkanalyse, Postbus 938, 1200 AX Hilversum. E-mail: vanderhulst@online.nl.
Artikel

Analyse van het Zuid-Nederlandse xtc-netwerk

Tijdschrift Tijdschrift voor Veiligheid, Aflevering 2 2009
Trefwoorden sociale netwerkanalyse, xtc-netwerk, xtc-handel, crimineel macronetwerk
Auteurs Dr. Toine Spapens
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    The social network approach is gaining influence among criminologists studying organized crime and terrorism. The theoretical concept, however, still needs further elaboration. To this end, concepts developed within the field of economic sociology could provide a substantial contribution. Economic sociologists have, among other things, focused on the role of social networks with regard to the completion of economic transactions. They regard mutual trust built through personal relations as an essential part of economic transactions, particularly if these imply certain risks for the parties involved. In other words, before transactions materialize, the parties must first be able to establish trustworthy personal relations. Based on these ideas, Spapens introduced in 2006 the theoretical concept of the criminal macro network, being a social network consisting of individuals able and willing to engage in illegal activities. The capital of each member of the criminal network consists, on the one hand, of his links, defined as information relations, within the network. On the other hand, a person’s position is determined by personal knowledge and skills. It is assumed that executing an actual illegal activity – e.g. drug production, trafficking human beings, bank robbery – requires cooperation between a subset of members of the criminal network, the criminal group.An extensive study of xtc production in the south of the Netherlands between 1996 and 2004 revealed the existence of a ‘xtc network’ consisting of individuals interconnected by social relations. The macro network proved to be relatively stable over time. The composition of the criminal groups, however, changed regularly. This was not only explained by shifting business opportunities, but also by the efforts of the police and the Public Prosecution Service leading to convictions and the dismantling of criminal groups. Better knowledge of the functioning of the criminal macro network can provide valuable contributions to criminological understanding of organized crime. These insights are of course also of great practical importance for law enforcement agencies.


Dr. Toine Spapens
Dr. Toine Spapens is als senior onderzoeker verbonden aan de vakgroep Strafrecht van de Faculteit der Rechtsgeleerdheid aan de Universiteit van Tilburg. Contactadres: Universiteit van Tilburg, Vakgroep Strafrechtswetenschappen, Postbus 90153, 5000 LE Tilburg. E-mail: a.c.spapens@uvt.nl.
Artikel

De Collectieve Winkelontzegging

Tijdschrift Tijdschrift voor Veiligheid, Aflevering 2 2009
Trefwoorden winkelontzegging, overlast, (on)veiligheid, voorzorgsprincipe
Auteurs Loes Wesselink, Marc Schuilenburg en Patrick Van Calster
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    Public Private Partnerships (PPS) are becoming one of the most popular answers to problems of crime and disorder. In this contribution, the authors research the Collective Shop Ban, maybe the most successful form of Public Private Partnerships currently operating in the Netherlands. A Collective Shop Ban is a civil measure bestowed upon a person by the shop owner, when s/he displays ‘unwanted behaviour’. As a consequence entry can be denied for every shop assembled in the association of entrepreneurs. In 2007 almost 900 people have been denied access to over 450 shops in the city centre of The Hague. This new form of collaboration between police, public prosecution service and entrepreneurs has already been rewarded with the Regional Crime Control Platform ‘safety award’. However, the authors question the effects of this collaboration. They argue that the Collective Shop Ban creates its own public of ‘unwanted shoppers’, that can be banned from a shopping area by devising new terms of exclusion. This ‘public’ is subjected to new means of power, to be applied by private security guards and shop owners. While entrepreneurs celebrate the possibilities of this civil measure, the authors warn for the juridical and ethical consequences of this measure.


Loes Wesselink
Loes Wesselink is criminologe en werkt als junior onderzoeker bij het COT Instituut voor Veiligheids- en Crisismanagement in Den Haag. E-mail: wesselink.loes@gmail.com.

Marc Schuilenburg
Marc Schuilenburg doceert aan de vakgroep Criminologie van de Vrije Universiteit te Amsterdam. E-mail: m.b.schuilenburg@rechten.vu.nl.

Patrick Van Calster
Patrick Van Calster is universitair hoofddocent aan het departement strafrecht en criminologie van de Universiteit Leiden. E-mail: p.j.v..van.calster@law.leidenuniv.nl.
Artikel

Sociale netwerkanalyse en jeugdcriminaliteit: een overzicht

Tijdschrift Tijdschrift voor Veiligheid, Aflevering 2 2009
Trefwoorden sociale netwerkanalyse, jeugdcriminaliteit, jeugddelinquentie
Auteurs Frank Weerman
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    In this paper, recent social network research in the area of juvenile delinquency is reviewed. Two main subjects are distinguished: first, studies in which Social Network Analysis is used to enhance our insights into the relation between delinquent peers and own delinquent behavior; second, the use of Social Network Analysis to get a better picture of delinquent groups and youth gangs. Two examples of social network analyses in the field of juvenile delinquency are elaborated. These examples combine visual depiction of networks with quantitative analyses of network characteristics, illustrating the complementary nature of both approaches. The literature and the examples show that Social Network Analysis lead to a more nuanced and complex insight into the role of delinquent peers in delinquent behavior and the structure of groups of young offenders.


Frank Weerman
Frank M. Weerman is senior onderzoeker bij het Nederlands Studiecentrum Criminaliteit en Rechtshandhaving (NSCR). Contactadres: NSCR, Postbus 71304, 1008 BH Amsterdam. E-mail: fweerman@nscr.nl.

Drs. Bas Mali
Bas Mali is onderzoeker bij het Lectoraat Gemeenschappelijke Veiligheidskunde en docent-onderzoeker bij de Faculteit Algemene Politiekunde van de Politieacademie. E-mail: bas.mali@politieacademie.nl.

    In an editorial article the editors supply a commentary on the topics covered in the journal.


Jan Terpstra
Artikel

Mediaberichtgeving over calamiteiten: de magie meester?

Tijdschrift Tijdschrift voor Veiligheid, Aflevering 1 2009
Trefwoorden mediaberichtgeving, calamiteiten, voorspelbaarheid, magiefactor
Auteurs Prof. dr. ir. Bastiaan Zoeteman en Drs. ir. Wouter Kersten
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    Authorities are increasingly challenged by the globalised media to improve their way of communication to the public. This applies particularly for the management of calamities. In the past government was acting at the top of the information pyramid, but this is no longer the case. Professionals and citizens have become more self reliant and active in collecting information. The hierarchical communication structure has been replaced by a network structure. In case the government is not handling this changed situation adequately it is likely to result in loss of authority and of communication efficiency.In this paper results are presented of two studies carried out in the period 2005-2007 involving in total 110 calamities. The general purpose of the study was to analyze the changing communication landscape of risks and calamities in order to provide government authorities with recommendations to improve communication effectiveness e.g. by applying communication instruments adapted to the new situation. In this context the predictability of the size of the media attention for a calamity has been assessed. If media attention can be predicted in an early phase of the calamity this will provide extra reaction time to authorities and may help to e.g. nominate a spokesperson at the right level from the beginning.The results show that media attention can be reasonably well predicted on the basis of a limited number of criteria. Powerful predictive criteria are e.g. economic damage, number of evacuated people, and a general criterion called the magic factor. This is a container criterion including aspects such as newness, hugeness and related aspects which have as common denominator that they stimulate imagination and have a highly emotional content.Although the study focused on external safety calamities the predictive methodology is also applicable for other types of calamities which have similar time-space characteristics, such as terrorist attacks. Media will however never be completely predictable. Therefore intuition, local expertise, and repeated assessment of the likely media attention are needed to come to a reliable overall judgement.


Prof. dr. ir. Bastiaan Zoeteman
Bastiaan C.J. Zoeteman is bijzonder hoogleraar Duurzaamheidsbeleid in Internationaal Perspectief bij Telos, Universiteit van Tilburg. E-mail: zoeteman@uvt.nl.

Drs. ir. Wouter Kersten
Wouter C. Kersten is onderzoeker bij Telos, Universiteit van Tilburg.

Paul Schuurman
Paul Schuurman is docent Conflict- en Crisisbeheersing op de Politieacademie. E-mail: paul.schuurman@politieacademie.nl

Dr. Eric Bervoets
Eric Bervoets is senior onderzoeker-adviseur bij het COT Instituut voor Veiligheids- en Crisismanagement. E-mail: E.Bervoets@cot.nl.

Dr. Daniëlle Dijns
Dr. Daniëlle L.A.M. Dijns is in 2008 vanuit de Stichting Jongeren en Sociale Limieten (JSL) in Bedum gepromoveerd in de gedrags- en maatschappijwetenschappen aan de Rijksuniversiteit Groningen. E-mail: dlamdijns@gmail.com
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