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Artikel

Expert Judgement geeft crisisteam continu ­inzicht in effectiviteit van maatregelen

Tijdschrift Tijdschrift voor Veiligheid, Aflevering 1 2021
Trefwoorden Continu inzicht, Expert Judgement, Impact inschatting, Flood risk management, Besluitvorming
Auteurs Hanneke Vreugdenhil, Bas Kolen, Martin Nieuwenhuis e.a.
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    Crisis teams from waterauthorities want to have insight into the current risks for the area. The ‘Continuous insight’-method is used by them to monitor the risks of drought and high water and to draw up what-if scenarios for training and exercise. Various cases have now shown that Expert Judgment can be used to gain a clearer picture of the effectiveness of measures and to take a more balanced decision. The Expert Judgment method has been tested and applied by a group of international experts as part of the EU project DRIVER +. During an extreme situation, the crisis team may encounter dilemmas. The engaged group of experts follows a fixed procedure to provide advice to reduce flood risk evacuate to prevent loss of life.
    Each expert makes his own assessment of the effect and impact of the measure envisaged. Each expert provides an explanation of the individual assessment. Then, under the guidance of a process supervisor, the experts discuss individual assessments and exchange arguments. This can lead to new insights. Each expert makes his own assessment again. The result is a probability distribution of estimates and an expected value. This expert assessment of the measure is taken to the crisis team, so that the chance of success and the assessment of the consequences of the proposed measure can be adjusted. The crisis team can take the decision immediately afterwards.
    By following this procedure risk information is made visible. By linking expert knowledge with observations, a better substantiated expectation can be drawn up. According to the participants in the international meetings, the Expert Judgment method in combination with ‘Continuous insight’ helps to make better informed and faster choices. The method fits within the existing crisis management structure. The next step is to implement this method in the day-to-day affairs of crisis management.


Hanneke Vreugdenhil
Hanneke Vreugdenhil is werkzaam bij HKV. h.vreugdenhil@hkv.nl

Bas Kolen
Bas Kolen is directeur van HKV, de kennisondernemer voor water en veiligheid. secretariaat@hkv.nl

Martin Nieuwenhuis
Martin Nieuwenhuis is werkzaam bij Waterschap Rijn en IJssel. m.nieuwenhuis@wrij.nl

Marcel van der Doef
Marcel van der Doef is werkzaam bij Waterschap Brabantse Delta. m.van.der.doef@brabantsedelta.nl

Jan van der Lingen
Jan van der Lingen is werkzaam bij Hoogheemraadschap Hollands Noorderkwartier. j.vanderlingen@hhnk.nl

André de Rond
André de Rond is werkzaam bij Veiligheidsregio Haaglanden. andre.de.rond@vrh.nl

Marit Zethof
Marit Zethof is werkzaam bij HKV. m.zethof@hkv.nl

Mattijn van Hoek
Mattijn van Hoek is werkzaam bij HKV. m.vanhoek@hkv.nl
Artikel

De inzet van privaat gewapend maritiem beveiligingspersoneel of Privately Contracted Armed Security Personnel (PCASP) aan boord van Belgische en Nederlandse koopvaardijschepen

Een rechtsvergelijkende analyse van de wetgeving van Europese vlaggenstaten

Tijdschrift Tijdschrift voor Veiligheid, Aflevering 1 2019
Trefwoorden Maritime piracy, private maritime security company, PMSC, vessel protection detachment, privately contracted armed security personnel
Auteurs Ilja Van Hespen
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    Until recently, Dutch merchant ships could not rely on privately contracted maritime security staff to protect themselves against pirates. On the one hand, the argument prevailed that the State had to retain the monopoly on the use of force and, on the other hand, one also feared for the escalation of violence or international incidents. Nowadays, however, more and more European countries allow for the use of privately contracted armed security personnel on board merchant ships. As a result, the Dutch Parliament has adopted a bill containing rules for the use of armed private security guards on board Dutch maritime merchant ships (Law to Protect Merchant Shipping 2019 (published in the Dutch official Gazette on June 7th, 2019)).
    The author addresses the question whether because of the new law a level playing field will emerge with the Merchant Navies from the neighboring Flag States of Belgium, the United Kingdom, Spain and Denmark, presenting a comparative analysis of their domestic legislation.
    The Dutch law clearly regulates the use of force and the master has the final responsibility for everything that happens under his authority. In principle, the security guards may only apply violence as the master has determined that it is necessary. Innovative is that there is a reporting obligation whereby every incident should be reported with images and sound recordings. It seems, however, that the law is especially made to protect and secure and not necessarily to provide a solution for situations in which pirates come on board.
    It is clear that the intention of the legislator is to leave the monopoly on the use of force in the hands of the State. However, the adoption of this law to protect merchant shipping could constitute a first step in enabling the use of force by other actors than the State, which in itself is groundbreaking. Before being able to go on this road, there are still countless political (mainly related to the sovereignty of a State) and legal challenges (mainly concerning the use of force and respect for human rights) to be addressed.


Ilja Van Hespen
Ilja Van Hespen is luitenant-ter-zee eerste klasse bij de Belgische Marinecomponent, hoofd van de Sectie Governance van de Naval Policy Staff van het Operationeel Commando van de Marine, doctorandus in de Sociale en Militaire Wetenschappen aan de Koninklijke Militaire School, doctorandus in de Rechten aan de Vrije Universiteit Brussel en Universiteit Gent, master Handelsingenieur en doctoral researcher aan het Rolin-Jaequemyns International Law Institute Ghent.
Artikel

Vessel protection, van zorgplicht naar zelfverdediging

Tijdschrift Tijdschrift voor Veiligheid, Aflevering 0304 2015
Trefwoorden Security, Piracy, public vs. private responsibilities, policy making, paradigm changes
Auteurs Henk Warnar
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    This article demonstrates the influence of intellectual debate in policy paradigm changes. In response to piracy around the Horn of Africa, Dutch naval forces have participated in NATO and EU counter piracy operations since 2008. Although successful, also self protection measures by the merchant ships are required to provide security to individual ships. Since 2008 Dutch ship owners have advocated to amend legislation to allow private armed security teams (PAST) for individual protection, similar to policies by most foreign countries. Because of sensitivities concerning the private use of arms, policymakers, politicians, stakeholders and advisors have circumvented the issue. Instead of addressing the question of self defense, the paradigm of state monopoly for violence and the state’s obligation to provide security, made individual protection by embarked military teams to develop as a governmental service at levels that turned out to be unachievable for the armed forces. This policy caused several types of friction. Currently, the only acceptable solution seems to be to allow PAST and legislation is being prepared accordingly. A successful paradigm change however can only be achieved if an adequate new paradigm is constructed by intellectual debate. (Hall, Visser & Hemerijck) So far this debate has been too limited in scope. Debate has been state centric and focused on legal views and regulation. To resolve friction, additional analysis of differing roles by the state and individual entrepreneurs is required. Such analysis argues that the state severely reduces individual protection and politicians decide on the fundamental question of self defense by ships at the high seas.


Henk Warnar
Henk Warnar is senior adviseur bij het Ministerie van Defensie.
Artikel

Gedragsprofiling: het bepalen van kwade bedoelingen en het meten van effectiviteit

Tijdschrift Tijdschrift voor Veiligheid, Aflevering 2 2015
Trefwoorden gedragsprofiling, afwijkend gedrag, psychologie, effectiviteitsmetingen, beveiligingspersoneel
Auteurs Helma van den Berg, Remco Wijn en Dianne van Hemert
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    Is behavioural profiling a viable alternative to more traditional approaches to profiling, viewed from the perspectives of underlying theoretical assumptions and measures of effectiveness? In this article we describe behaviour profiling in relation to other types of profiling, we review relevant psychological mechanisms that underpin behaviour profiling, and discuss effectiveness of this type of profiling as well as methodological aspects of measuring effectiveness. Behaviour profiling is a method largely used to select potential offenders before the offence is committed by observing and giving meaning to behaviours preceding incidents. Deviant behaviours exhibited by suspects can be either part of a modus operandi related to the offence, the consequence of increased stress, or an atypical response to prodding actions by security officers. Relevant psychological mechanisms to explain ways behaviour profiling works include direct characteristics of deception as well as indirect indicators of deception, such as a criminal being more self-focused and more cognitively engaged. Effectiveness of behaviour profiling is increased by training, including learning more about modi operandi and related behaviours, awareness of biases in general, specific relevant biases, and techniques to correct for these biases.


Helma van den Berg
Helma van den Berg is werkzaam bij TNDO Earth, Life, and Social Sciences. Helma.

Remco Wijn
Remco Wijn is research scientist bij TNO Earth, Life, and Social Sciences

Dianne van Hemert
Dianne A. van Hemert is werkzaam bij TNO Earth, Life, and Social Sciences en redacteur van dit tijdschrift.
Artikel

Beheersing van criminaliteitsrisico's door het bedrijfsleven

Tijdschrift Tijdschrift voor Veiligheid, Aflevering 4 2008
Trefwoorden risico, bedrijfstak, politie, bank, illegaal, deskundigheid, diefstal, schade, muziekindustrie, toezicht
Auteurs J. Terpstra

J. Terpstra
Nieuws

Herstelbemiddeling veelbelovend bij geweldsdelicten onder jongeren

Tijdschrift Tijdschrift voor Veiligheid, Aflevering 4 2006
Trefwoorden delinquent, slachtoffer, bemiddelaar, herstel, ouders, strafbaar feit, geweldsdelict, jeugdstrafrecht, tussenkomst, bemiddeling
Auteurs M. Moll en I. Linse

M. Moll

I. Linse
Discussie

De recidive van Den Engh

Tijdschrift Tijdschrift voor Veiligheid, Aflevering 1 2009
Auteurs Dr. Gijs Weijters en Prof. dr. Stefan Bogaerts
SamenvattingAuteursinformatie

    [Volgt nog]


Dr. Gijs Weijters
Gijs Weijters is als onderzoeker werkzaam bij de onderzoeksafdeling CRS (Criminaliteit, Rechtshandhaving en Sancties) van het Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek en Documentatiecentrum (WODC) van het ministerie van Justitie. E-mail: g.m.weijters@minjus.nl.

Prof. dr. Stefan Bogaerts
Stefan Bogaerts is als hoogleraar forensische psychologie en victimologie verbonden aan de Faculteit Sociale Wetenschappen, sectie klinische psychologie en aan de Faculteit Rechtsgeleerdheid, Intervict, Universiteit van Tilburg. Hij doceert tevens aan het Leuvens Instituut voor Criminologie, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.
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