Crisis teams from waterauthorities want to have insight into the current risks for the area. The ‘Continuous insight’-method is used by them to monitor the risks of drought and high water and to draw up what-if scenarios for training and exercise. Various cases have now shown that Expert Judgment can be used to gain a clearer picture of the effectiveness of measures and to take a more balanced decision. The Expert Judgment method has been tested and applied by a group of international experts as part of the EU project DRIVER +. During an extreme situation, the crisis team may encounter dilemmas. The engaged group of experts follows a fixed procedure to provide advice to reduce flood risk evacuate to prevent loss of life.
Each expert makes his own assessment of the effect and impact of the measure envisaged. Each expert provides an explanation of the individual assessment. Then, under the guidance of a process supervisor, the experts discuss individual assessments and exchange arguments. This can lead to new insights. Each expert makes his own assessment again. The result is a probability distribution of estimates and an expected value. This expert assessment of the measure is taken to the crisis team, so that the chance of success and the assessment of the consequences of the proposed measure can be adjusted. The crisis team can take the decision immediately afterwards.
By following this procedure risk information is made visible. By linking expert knowledge with observations, a better substantiated expectation can be drawn up. According to the participants in the international meetings, the Expert Judgment method in combination with ‘Continuous insight’ helps to make better informed and faster choices. The method fits within the existing crisis management structure. The next step is to implement this method in the day-to-day affairs of crisis management.

In this paper, we present a mathematical model for the prediction of chimney fires using data collected by the Twente safety region over the years 2004 up to 2015. The explanatory variables used are the number of inhabitants per areal unit of 500 by 500 metres, the daily mean temperature and an indicator variable for October. Spatially and temporally correlated noise is added to be able to capture latent factors such as human behaviour. The model is validated using the data over the years 2016 and 2017. The model is implemented as a dashboard on a public website and yields as output a hazard map for chimney fires in Twente based on the weather forecast for the coming six days. This way, the dashboard can be used for prevention and planning purposes.

Prisoners often encounter multiple barriers when returning to society, resulting in higher risks of recidivism. To overcome these barriers, prison-based and community-based professionals assist with preparation for release. Prison-based professionals, such as the case manager and mentor, screen and monitor the problems regarding work and income, housing, healthcare, financial debts and valid identification. Community-based professionals, such as municipal officials, parole officers, healthcare professionals and volunteers, can provide additional and specialized help. First, this research discusses the current policy of the Dutch Custodial Institutions Agency (DJI) and the role of different types of professionals. Second, it presents a nationwide picture of the extent to which prisoners report contact with prison-based and community-based professionals, and to what degree prisoners appreciate this contact. The results are specified for various types of regimes and time served and are based on 4308 prisoner surveys of the Dutch Prison Visitation Study (DPVS), part of the Life in Custody Study (LIC-study). It turns out that most prisoners seem to be in close contact with prison-based professionals and that prisoners positively value this contact. However, contact with community-based professionals is limited and prisoners are somewhat dissatisfied about their contact with parole officers and municipal officials. Furthermore, the amount of contact differs across various types of regimes and time served. In particular, individuals who recently entered prison report less contact. To conclude, policy implications will be discussed.

Policy coherence in the area of safety and justice – A longitudinal analysis of service delivery per euro spent in the S&J sector during the period 1980-2016

In the safety and justice policy area, there is a strong intertwining between performances of the various sectors, such as police, judiciary and prison system. The question is whether policy takes these interdependencies into account sufficiently. Are the resources used – from a broader wealth perspective – optimally allocated amongst the various safety and justice provisions? The authors answer this question on the basis of an integrated time series analysis of the productivity development of the Dutch safety and justice system in the period 1980-2016. The analysis shows that productivity of safety and justice services has hardly changed since 1980. At best, in 2016, citizens will receive as much value per euro of taxpayers’ money as in 1980, but probably slightly less. It is striking, however, that the S&J system as a whole operates more efficient than the sum of its parts (the individual sectors). There have been substantial changes in the allocation of resources over time. Obviously money from the police was transferred to the judiciary and municipalities.

The aim of the present research was to gain insight into the topic of ‘task-related rule-breaking behavior’ (TRB) among Dutch police officers. TRB is a more refined alternative for the concept of noble cause corruption and has been defined as: police officers breaking rules or formal agreements for the purpose of acting in a manner that contributes to the lawful police task. Qualitative research has been conducted within one of the ten regional police forces in the Netherlands. Results show that TRB appears to be a relatively common phenomenon during policework. Behaviors are categorized in sixteen categories and five overarching outlines. In addition, attention is given to several important factors that could be related to TRB being distinguishable between police officers’ individual responsibility and organizational factors. To handle TRB, it is recommended to pay attention to the police officers’ approach of judging and rationalizing their own behavior, their level of knowledge, and social skills. Furthermore, organizational structure (i.e., spam of control) and police leadership may, among other factors, play an important role in encouraging TRB. Especially the way supervisors deal with police officers’ professional autonomy needs specific attention in order to reduce TRB. Autonomy needs guidance in the form of clear orders followed by feedback and coaching. Also, an active form of ethical leadership is needed. An action framework is presented that could be helpful to supervisors to judge and thereby reduce forms of TRB.

Little is known about (former) partners of 1%motorcycle club members. Social professionals working with victims of domestic violence in shelters have regular encounters with these mostly female (ex-)partners. In this exploratory contribution we wonder what is known about domestic violence amongst people with (ex-)partners of 1%motorcycle club members and the consequences of the involvement of a motorcycle club for tackling this violence. Based on thirteen semi-structured interviews with social professionals working in a shelter, external professionals and (ex-)partners, the link between domestic violence and membership of a motorcycle club could not be verified. What this research does show is that safety is the number one priority in working with these (ex-)partners. Furthermore, it shows how complex it is to assess the seriousness of potential threat coming from these 1%motorcyle clubs. Further research on domestic violence in environments associated with organised crime and the cooperation between the judiciary system and social professionals is needed to improve safety and wellbeing for this specific group.

In this article, we analyze which aspects of performance theory and the procedural justice-based model are explaining the trust of shopkeepers in the police and local government. Utilizing a survey of 156 shopkeepers and 94 semi-constructed interviews with shopkeepers, which are located at the South Shopping Boulevard in Rotterdam (The Netherlands), the study finds that shopkeepers have a relatively high trust in the police and local government. This is surprising because various attempts in the past 30 years to revive the high street by the government have failed to improve its bad image, as dwindling visitor numbers, poor turnover, limited range of retailers, empty shops and high crime and offence levels show only too plainly. The findings also highlight that ethnic minority respondents have more trust in local government than Dutch shopkeepers. The explanation therefor is sought in the dual frame of reference theory.

Traditionally, the mayor has an important role as a citizen’s father and as a maintainer of public order. In the context of the so-called ‘undermining’ criminality, the mayor has been increasingly empowered with new legal instruments to combat undermining criminality. Some mayors see themselves as a sheriff. However, in the Dutch Municipal Act, the mayor only has a task of maintaining the public order. How does this task relate to combating undermining criminality? What is the role of the mayor in the combat of undermining criminality? Nowadays, there is no legal basis in the Dutch Municipal Act to equip the mayor with crime-fighting duties. This article proposes to equip the mayor with a legal duty as a crime fighter.

The Financial Action Task Force reported that money launderers may operate in professional money laundering networks. Whether such money laundering networks operate in the Netherlands is unclear. In this article the authors therefore explore whether professional money launderers collaborate in network structures and the business-like manner in which they offer their services. Business-like refers to their involvement in multiple cases, the amount of repeat customers, and excludes family relations. The research is based on Dutch police registrations of 236 professional money launderers. Our results suggest that professional money laundering networks are indeed active in the Netherlands and that money launderers in these networks offer their services in a business-like manner to a varying extent. An important caveat to the current findings is that the criminal cases analyzed predominantly pertain drug-related offenses, leaving the existence and professionalism of money laundering networks in other types of crime, like large-scale fraud, a question open for future research.

The current study investigates the relationship between the Dark Triad personality traits (consisting of narcissism, psychopathy and Machiavellianism) and three different forms of aggression: online aggression, overt aggression and relational aggression. The sample consisted of 1,051 adolescents between 12 and 16 years old. Results show that psychopathy and Machiavellianism are positive predictors of the three forms of aggression, while narcissism is a positive predictor of online aggression only.

The aim of this study was to investigate the scale and network structure of prostitution in the northern provinces of the Netherlands. This study tries to answer three research questions – using a social network analysis – about (1) the size of the prostitution network, (2) the formation of subgroups, and (3) key positions within the networks. The findings show that approximately two thirds of the researched prostitution networks is still unregistered, while there are indications that the outcome of the estimate is in line with the actual situation. Furthermore, results show that prostitutes have a tendency to form subgroups on the basis of the same nationality, which indicates that homophily plays a role in the formation of subgroups. The identification of the actors who occupy key positions in the network were based on the key player problem (KPP). A striking finding was that organizers of prostitution (such as pimps) did not have a central position in the networks. These findings provide insight into the way in which prostitution is registered, and provide points of departure for interventions to disrupt the network or, on the contrary, to strengthen it.

Criminology has traditionally focused on urban areas where crime visibly concentrates. However, since the 1990s, attention for ‘rural criminology’ has steadily increased. First, rural areas are confronted with partly different and less visible crime problems, such as environmental crimes. Second, public actors such as enforcement and other agencies are less present and ‘available’ in rural areas, and people on average trust the government less to provide support when necessary. This chronicle presents an overview of international and Dutch research in the context of rural criminology. The paper addresses cultural differences between urban and rural areas, high-volume crimes, gender-related violence, alcohol and drug abuse, environmental crime, and enforcement in rural areas.

Convict criminology draws from personal experience of imprisonment to offer critical criminological perspectives on punishment and prisons. In this article I discuss how some of these are aligned with questions of narrative and post-colonial perspectives in criminology. I use autoethnographic vignettes to communicate the experiences of imprisonment that inform the development of convict criminology, and I explore their relationship to narrative criminology’s interest in personal stories.

This paper, answering to a recent critique by Ben Laws to the concept of Self developed by narrative criminology, and recognizing its importance, shows that narrative criminology has formulated a complex dynamic definition of it, in addressing both the limit-experiences and the unconscious dimension. Such enlargement can be attained by adding to narrative criminology the contributions of psychosocial criminology, that considers also the emotional dimension of crime narratives and the enjoyment connected to crime: the offender Self, in this perspective, is a multiplex, not completely definable, sometimes alien entity, which can be exposed analysing in depth criminal narratives.